Global maps of current (1979-2013) and future (2061-2080) habitat suitability probability for 1,485 European endemic plant species

  1. Pouteau, Robin 1
  2. Biurrun, Idoia 2
  3. Brunel, Caroline 3
  4. Chytrý, Milan 4
  5. Dawson, Wayne 5
  6. Essl, Franz 6
  7. Fristoe, Trevor 7
  8. Haveman, Rense 8
  9. Hobohm, Carsten 9
  10. Jansen, Florian 10
  11. Kreft, Holger 11
  12. Lenoir, Jonathan 12
  13. Lenzner, Bernd 6
  14. Meyer, Carsten 13
  15. Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold 14
  16. Pergl, Jan 15
  17. Pyšek, Petr 15
  18. Svenning, Jens-Christian 14
  19. Thuiller, Wilfried 16
  20. Weigelt, Patrick 11
  21. Wohlgemuth, Thomas 17
  22. Yang, Qiang 7
  23. Van Kleunen, Mark 7
  1. 1 University of Montpellier
    info

    University of Montpellier

    Montpellier, Francia

    ROR https://ror.org/051escj72

  2. 2 Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea
    info

    Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea

    Lejona, España

    ROR https://ror.org/000xsnr85

  3. 3 Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
  4. 4 Masaryk University
    info

    Masaryk University

    Brno, República Checa

    ROR https://ror.org/02j46qs45

  5. 5 Durham University
    info

    Durham University

    Durham, Reino Unido

    ROR https://ror.org/01v29qb04

  6. 6 University of Vienna
    info

    University of Vienna

    Viena, Austria

    ROR https://ror.org/03prydq77

  7. 7 University of Konstanz
    info

    University of Konstanz

    Constanza, Alemania

    ROR https://ror.org/0546hnb39

  8. 8 Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations
  9. 9 University of Flensburg
    info

    University of Flensburg

    Flensburgo, Alemania

    ROR https://ror.org/046e0mt33

  10. 10 University of Rostock
    info

    University of Rostock

    Rostock, Alemania

    ROR https://ror.org/03zdwsf69

  11. 11 University of Göttingen
    info

    University of Göttingen

    Gotinga, Alemania

    ROR https://ror.org/01y9bpm73

  12. 12 University of Picardie Jules Verne
    info

    University of Picardie Jules Verne

    Amiens, Francia

    ROR https://ror.org/01gyxrk03

  13. 13 German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research
    info

    German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research

    Leipzig, Alemania

    ROR https://ror.org/01jty7g66

  14. 14 Aarhus University
    info

    Aarhus University

    Århus, Dinamarca

    ROR https://ror.org/01aj84f44

  15. 15 Czech Academy of Sciences
  16. 16 Grenoble Alpes University
    info

    Grenoble Alpes University

    Saint-Martin-d’Hères, Francia

    ROR https://ror.org/02rx3b187

  17. 17 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
    info

    Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research

    Birmensdorf, Suiza

    ROR https://ror.org/04bs5yc70

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Editor: Dryad

Año de publicación: 2021

Tipo: Dataset

CC0 1.0

DOI: 10.5061/DRYAD.QV9S4MWF3 lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Resumen

Aims: The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains largely misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land-use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location: Global Methods: We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analyzed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species’ potential alien ranges. Results: We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land-use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions: While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.