Presidential Elections in Semi-Presidential SystemsPresidential Powers, Electoral Turnout and the Performance of Government-Endorsed Candidates

Resumen

Although a large body of research has been produced both on semi-presidential regimes and patterns of electoral change from general elections to midterm or other non-general elections, the study of presidential elections in semi-presidential regimes remains, to quote one of the few exceptions in this regard, �uncharted territory� in the political science literature. Using a dataset on election results and turnout levels in all semi-presidential democracies since 1945, we test several hypotheses about changes in turnout levels and government parties and coalitions� gains and losses in presidential elections. We show that while semi-presidential democracies with weaker presidencies do approximate the patterns predicted by the �second-order� model, that is clearly not the case where presidents hold more considerable powers, where government losses are explained by �negative voting� and �balancing� theories. The implications of these findings for the very definition of �semi-presidentialism� and the consequences of these regimes are also discussed.