La geografía de la Gran Moderación en América Latina

  1. Carlos A. Carrasco 1
  2. Xabier Gainza 2
  1. 1 Instituto Politécnico Nacional, México (SEPI-ESE-IPN)
  2. 2 Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea (UPV/EHU)
Revista:
Revista de economía mundial

ISSN: 1576-0162

Año de publicación: 2015

Número: 41

Páginas: 103-126

Tipo: Artículo

DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openArias Montano editor

Otras publicaciones en: Revista de economía mundial

Resumen

Given the magnitude of the debt crisis in Latin America, several reforms and structural adjustment processes were introduced to stabilize national economies and reduce the business cycle fluctuations. Meanwhile, from the mid-eighties developed countries attained greater stability in inflation and economic growth within a period known as the “Great Moderation”. The aim of this paper is to outline the stabilization process of Latin America during the last three decades based on the graphical analysis of the main macroeconomic variables. Taking into account these variables has allowed us to approach the common causes of the stabilization process, as well as some of the differences that still remain.

€ Ver financiación

Información de financiación

Los datos provienen de varias fuentes. La inflación para Argentina fue ex-traída de las Estadísticas Financieras Internacionales del Fondo Monetario In-ternacional (IFS-IMF) mientras que la inflación de Chile la obtuvimos del Insti-tuto Nacional de estadística de Chile. Las variables de deuda fueron extraídas de Reinhart y Rogoff (2010) y las variables referentes a los acervos de activos y pasivos financieros de la versión actualizada de Lane y Milesi-Ferretti (2007). El resto de las variables fueron obtenidas de la base de datos de los Indicado-res del Desarrollo Mundial del Banco Mundial.

Financiadores

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Agosin M. y Ffrench-Davis R. (1993): “La liberalización comercial en América Latina”, Revista de la CEPAL, 50, 41-62.
  • Aiolfi, M.; Catão, L.A.V. y Timmermann, A. (2011): “Common factors in Latin America’s business cycles”, Journal of Development Economics, 95(2011), 212-228.
  • Aizenman, J.; Hutchison, M. y Noy, I. (2011): “Inflation Targeting and Real Ex-change Rates in Emerging Markets”, World Development, 39(5), 712-724.
  • Bittencourt, M. 2012. “Financial development and economic growth in Latin America: Is Schumpeter right?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 34, 341-355.
  • Blanchard, O. y Simon, J. (2001): “The long and large decline in U.S. output volatility” Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 32, 135-64.
  • Cagan, P. (1956): “The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation”, en Milton Fried-man (ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, The University of Chi-cago Press, Chicago, USA.
  • Canova, F. (2009): “What explains the great moderation in the U.S.? A structur-al analysis”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 7(4), 697-721.
  • Carrasco, C.A. y Ferreiro, J. (2013): “Inflation targeting in Mexico” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 35(3), 341-372.
  • Carrasco, C. A. y Ferreiro, J. (2014): “Latin American inflation differentials with USA inflation: does Inflation Targeting make a difference?”, Journal of Eco-nomic Policy Reform, 17(1), 13-32.
  • Carstens, A. y Jácome, L.I. (2005): “Latin American Central Bank Reform: Prog-ress and Challenge”, IMF Working Paper, WP/05/114.
  • CEPAL (1996): América Latina y el Caribe quince años después. De la década perdida a la transformación económica 1980-1995, CEPAL y Fondo de Cultura Económica, Santiago de Chile.
  • Chang T. y Chiang G. (2011): “Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries”, Economic Modelling, 28, 2404-2408.
  • Cubeddu, L. y Tovar, C. E. (2011): “Perspectivas y asuntos de política económi-ca en América Latina y el Caribe” en Perspectivas económicas: Las Amé-ricas. Vientos cambiantes, nuevos desafíos de política, Fondo Monetario Internacional, octubre, 19-51.
  • De Gregorio, J. (2008): “La Gran Moderación y el riesgo inflacionario: una mirada desde las economías emergentes”, Estudios Públicos, 110, 5-20.
  • De Paula, L. F., Ferrari-Filho, F., y Gomes, A. M. (2013): “Capital flows, interna-tional imbalances and economic policies in Latin America” en Arestis, P. y Sawyer, M. (eds) Economic Policies, Governance and the New Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp. 209-248.
  • Demirel, U. D. (2010): “Macroeconomic stabilization in developing economies: Are optimal policies procyclical?”, European Economic Review, 54(2010), 409-428.
  • Dornbusch, R.,Sturzenegger, F. y Wolf, H. (1990): “Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2.
  • Enders, W. y Ma, J. (2011): “Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, 67-79.
  • Galí, J. y Gambetti, L. (2009): “On the sources of the Great Moderation”, Amer-ican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1, 26-57.
  • García de la Cruz, J.M. y Sánchez, A. (2008): “América Latina: ¿Volver a empe-zar?”, Revista de Economía Mundial, 18, 93-103.
  • Giannone, D.; Lenza, M. y Reichlin, L. (2008): “Explaining the Great Modera-tion: It is not the shocks”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(2-3), 621-633.
  • Hamed, S., Levin A., y Wilson, B.A. (2002): “Recent U.S. macroeconomic stabil-ity: good policies, good practices, or good luck?”, International Finance Dis-cussion Paper No. 730, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Herr, H. (2008): “Financial systems in developing countries and economic de-velopment” en Hein, E., Niechoj, T., Spahn, P. y Truger, A. (eds.) Finace-led Capitalism? Macroeconomic Effects of Changes in the Financial Sector, Metropolis-Verlag, Marburg, Germany, pp. 124-150.
  • Holland, M. y Porcile G. (2005): “Brecha tecnológica y crecimiento en América Latina”, en Cimoli M. (ed.) Heterogeneidad estructural, asimetrías tecnoló-gicas y crecimiento en América Latina, CEPAL-BID, 40-71.
  • Kim, C.J. y Nelson, C.R. (1999): “Has the U.S. economy become more stable? A Bayesian approach based on Markov-switching model of business cycle”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 608-16.
  • Lane, P. y Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. (2007): “The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970- 2004”, Journal of International Economics, 73, 223-250.
  • López-Calva, L.F. y Lustig, N. (2010): “Explaining the Decline in Inequality in Latin America: Technological Change, Educational Upgrading, and De-mocracy” en López-Calva, L.F. y Lustig, N. (eds.) Declining Inequality in Latin America: A Decade of Progress? Brookings Institution Press-UNDP, 1-24.
  • Lustig, N. (2007): “América Latina: la desigualdad y su disfuncionalidad” en Machinea, J.L. y Serra, N. (eds.) Visiones del desarrollo en América Latina, CEPAL-CIDOB, 231-245.
  • Machinea, J. L. (2014): “La crisis y la macroeconomía de América Latina: lec-ciones y desafíos” en Devlin, R., Echevarria, O. A. y Machinea, J.L. (eds.) América Latina en una era de globalización, CAF, 185-212.
  • Martínez-Carrera, C. y Vergara, R. (2012): “Fiscal Sustainability: The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Debt Valuation, Interest Rates and GDP Growth”, World Development, 40(9), 1762-1783.
  • McCarthy, J. y Zakrajŝek, E. (2007): “Inventory dynamics and business cycles: what has changed?”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39, 591-613.
  • McConnell, M. M. y Gabriel Perez-Quiros (2000): “Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980‘s?”, American Eco-nomic Review, 90(5), 1464-1476.
  • Reinhart, C. y Rogoff, K.S. (2010): “From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis”, NBER Working Paper, 15795.
  • Reinhart, C. y Savastano, M.A. (2003): “The realities of Modern Hyperinfla-tions”, Finance & Development, 40(2), 20-23.
  • Rodrik, D. (2008): “The real exchange rate and economic growth”, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, 365-412.
  • Sánchez, A. y Castillo, M. (2006): “Globalización financiera de América Latina: el fracaso de una idealizada inserción internacional”, Revista de Economía Mundial, 15, 237-258.
  • Stock, J. H. y Watson, M. W. (2003): “Has the business cycle changed and why?”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, 17, 159-230.
  • Summers, P. M. (2005): “What caused the Great Moderation? Some cross-country evidence”, Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 90(3), 5-32.
  • Taguchi, H. (2011): “Monetary autonomy in emerging market economies: The role of foreign reserves”, Emerging Markets Review, 12(2011), 371-388.
  • Williamson, J. (2004-5): “The strange history of the Washington consensus”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 27, 195-206.
Fuente de los datos: Dialnet