La reactivación de la guerra civil tras eleccionesla acción de los beligerantes durante la implementación de los acuerdos de paz de Angola y Mozambique

Abstract

Since the 1990's multi-party elections have represented a crucial step in theimplementation of peace agreements supported by the international community, offeringboth a chance for a dual transition to peace and democracy to end protracted civil wars.In some cases, however, these elections have been followed by a resurgence ofintrastate armed conflicts.Therefore, this thesis seeks to understand the phenomenon of civil warrecurrence following multi-party elections held during the implementation of peaceagreements supported by United Nations peace missions, in both Angola andMozambique. These two African cases are precisely opposing cases in terms of thephenomenon under study. While Angola plunged again into a bloody civil war after1992 elections, Mozambique did not return to war after 1994 elections.Particularly, this research asks to what extent the belligerents' action leads tocivil war recurrence after multi-party elections held during the implementation of peaceagreements. By combining theories on peacebuilding and democratization, as well asstudies on peace agreements, postwar elections and violence, it proposes a framework toanalyze the belligerents' action during the implementation of peace agreements, and toidentify the mechanism that fosters civil war resumption after multi-party elections.This work conducts a comprehensive qualitative and comparative analysisfocused on the action of the main belligerent parties of Angola's and Mozambique'scivil war. More specifically, it looks at the action of the Popular Movement for theLiberation of Angola (MPLA) and the National Union for the Total Independence ofAngola (UNITA) during the implementation of the Bicesse Accords (1991-1992) andthe action of the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) and the MozambicanNational Resistance (RENAMO) during the General Peace Agreement (1992-1994).The analysis shows that the reaction to the election results triggers themechanism to civil war recurrence, particularly when the defeated belligerent reactsviolently to the election results (bad loser) and the winner, in its turn, also counterreacts violently against the defeated party (bad winner).This research concludes that the interaction between the defeated and the winnerbelligerent parties during an advanced electoral or post-electoral phase is critical to civilwar recurrence after multi-party elections in contexts of implementation of peace agreements. Moreover, to understand that interaction it is important to identify inadvance what are the primary political goal and expectation to the election results, aswell as the capacity for and costs that influence belligerents' action.