Variables socioeconómicas relacionadas con la vulnerabilidad y su efecto sobre las características de los incendios forestales en Galicia

Resumo

Since the beginning of the 21st century, most of the forest fire in Spain have occurred in the northern region, specifically in Galicia. This region represents 5.8% of the Spanish territory but compromises, in specific years, up to 60% of all forest fires. Current forest fire research focuses on biophysical characteristics, post-fire situations, and their potential destructive capabilities. However, few investigations have delved into other socioeconomic factors (population structure, density, livestock farms, education, among others), which conformed the existing pre-fire situation in the affected territories and reflected the population's vulnerability. In fact, these socioeconomic variables can affect the characteristics of fires (occurrence, hectares burned and intensity). This research analyzes the dynamics of forest fires in Galicia between 2001 and 2015, examining the spatiotemporal trends of their occurrence, the area affected, and the relationship between forest fires and the different Galician municipalities' socioeconomic characteristics. Therefore, different methodologies have been used throughout the four publications made to develop the analysis as accurate as possible. Specifically, the first two publications are based on linear regressions on the data set to observe the effect of the selected variables on forest fires' characteristics. The third publication delves into the variables' impact in the same period through a panel data methodology. It is possible to observe the influence of the selected variables, both in spatial and temporal terms. Finally, to deepen and further specify the analysis of the effects of the selected variables, data reduction techniques (principal components) and grouping (Cluster of K means) were used to delimit the municipalities with similar characteristics. Using this classification, a panel data analysis is performed on each delimited area. In this sense, the ageing of the population and low density, among the variables in our research, have the most significant influence on fires production. Also, variables referring to the territory - such as the loss of rustic hectares or farms - and economic variables - such as the loss of cadastral value or income. All this is related to the abandonment of the territory and the disconnection of certain regions from the environment. The relevance of the results, which establish a relationship between the socioeconomic variables and the number of fires, must be considered by technical and political decision-makers. It is not only necessary to act on climatic, environmental, and natural issues when reducing the risk of occurrence; all aspects that may also influence fire production must be addressed holistically. Strategies that complement prevention efforts must be developed, where those variables that represent social vulnerability (such as aspects of exclusion, low income or ageing) are mitigated. Research shows this relationship and therefore reveals a problem present in society. The problem's severity can be reduced through strategies and policies that will affect the long and medium-term. Therefore, the proposed action measures must promote an exchange between the different population structures and at the same time try to influence certain harmful traditional behaviors associated with ageing societies (such as the systematic burning of the forest). This would make it possible to improve the labor force turnover rates and the demographic structure. One of the significant challenges is establishing the union between all the factors that intervene in a forest fire, from prevention to extinction, understanding its behavior and minimizing its effects. In short, through this research, we have demonstrated the influence of social characteristics, especially those related to vulnerability, in the production of fires. Our recommendation (and at the same time, our hope) is that, by working on these issues, a change can be generated in the occurrence of anthropic origin fires.